Energy crisis The year 1973 brought an end to the era of secure, cheap oil. In October, as a result of the Arab Israeli War, the Arab oil-producing countries cut back oil production and embargoed (禁运) oil shipments to the United States and the Netherlands. Although the Arab cutbacks represented a loss of less than 7 percent in world supply, they created panic on the part of oil companies, consumers, oil traders, and some governments. Wild bidding (出价) for crude oil ensued when a few producing nations began to auction (拍卖) off some of their oil. This bidding encouraged the OPEC nations, which now numbered 13, to raise the price of all their crude oil to a level as high as eight times that of a few years earlier. The world oil scene gradually calmed, as a worldwide recession brought on in part by the higher oil prices cut the demand for oil. In the meantime, most OPEC governments took over ownership of the oil fields in their countries. In 1978 a second oil crisis began when, as a result of the revolution that eventually drove the Shah of Iran from his throne, Iranian oil production and exports dropped drastically. Because Iran had been a major exporter, consumers again panicked. A replay of 1973 events, complete with wild bidding, again forced up oil prices during 1979. The outbreak of wax between Iran and Iraq in 1980 gave a further boost to oil prices. By the end of 1980 the price of crude oil stood at 19 times what it had been just ten years earlier. The very high oil prices again contributed to a worldwide recession and gave energy conservation a big push. As oil demand reduced and suppliers increased, the world oil market went down. Significant increases in non-OPEC oil supplies, such as those in the North Sea, Mexico, Brazil, Egypt, China, and India, pushed oil prices even lower. Production in the Soviet Union reached 11.42 million barrels per day by 1989, accounting for 19.2 percent of world production in that year. Despite the low world oil prices that have prevailed since 1986, concern over disruption (分裂，瓦解) has continued to be a major focus of energy policy in the industrialized countries. The short-term increases in prices following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 reinforced this concern. Owing to its vast reserves, the Middle East will continue to be the major source of oil for the foreseeable future. However, new discoveries in the Caspian Sea region suggest that countries such as Kazakhstan may become major sources of petroleum in the 21st century. Current state In the 1990s, oil production by non-OPEC countries remained strong and production by OPEC countries rebounded (回弹). The result at the end of the 20th century was a world oil surplus and prices (when adjusted for inflation) that were. lower than in 1972. Experts are uncertain about future oil supplies and prices. Low prices have spurred greater oil consumption, and experts question how long world petroleum reserves can keep pace with increased demand. Many of the world's leading petroleum geologists believe the world oil supply will peak around 80 million barrels per day between 2010 and 2020. (In 1998 world consumption was approximately 70 million barrels per day.) On the other hand, many economists believe that even modestly higher oil prices might lead to greater supply, since the oil companies would then have the economic incentive to exploit less accessible oil deposits. Natural gas may be increasingly used in place of oil for applications such as power generation and transportation. One reason is that world reserves of natural gas have doubled since 1976, in part because of the discovery of major deposits of natural gas in Russia and in the Middle East. New facilities and pipelines are being constructed to help process and transport this natural gas from production wells to consumers. In addition to developing alter