The Illusion of Progress —by Lester R. Brown Lester R. Brown is a senior researcher at the Worldwatch Institute, which every year since 1984 has produced a volume about the State of the World. Each year, this book updates information on poverty, overpopulation, air and water quality, agricultural land, and other world conditions. A respected sourcebook, it is consulted by the United Nations and other organizations concerned about protecting our world environment. The following reading is an excerpt from the first chapter of State of the World, 1992. For about four-fifths of human beings born since World War Ⅱ, life has seemed to be a time of continuous economic progress. The global economic production is about five times larger than it was in 1950. The increase in economic growth every ten years has been similar to the increase from the beginning of civilization until 1950. World food production has also increased a great deal. This was a result of increased demand caused by population growth and rising wealth, and was made possible by modern technology. The world's grain harvest is 2.6 times larger than it was in 1950. No other generation of human beings has seen such large gains in production. Such gains would seem to be a cause for celebration, but instead there is a sense of illusion, a feeling that not so much progress has been made. One reason for this is that our system of national accounting used to measure progress considers the loss in value of factories and equipment, but does not consider the using up of natural resources. Since mid-century, the world has lost nearly one-fifth of the topsoil from its croplands, a fifth of its tropical rain forests, and tens of thousands of its plant and animal species. During this same period, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have increased by 13 percent, causing hotter summers. The protective ozone (臭氧) layer in the stratosphere has decreased by 2 percent worldwide and far more over Antarctica. Dead lakes and dying forests have resulted from industrialization. Historians in the twenty-first century may admire our economic performance —but regret the environmental consequences. Throughout our lifetimes, economic trends have shaped environmental trends, often affecting the earth's natural resources and systems in ways not clear at the time. Now, as we enter the nineties, the reverse is also beginning to happen: environmental trends are beginning to shape economic trends. Environmental damage to the planet is beginning to affect harvests of food. The effects of losing 24 billion tons of topsoil each year are being felt in some of the world's major food-producing regions. Recent studies indicate that air pollution is damaging crops in both auto-centered economies of the West and coal-burning economies of the East.Meteorologists cannot yet be certain, but the hotter summers and decreased rainfall of the eighties may be early indications of the greenhouse effect. Environmental damage undoubtedly was a cause of slower growth in world grain production during the eighties. The doubling of grain output mentioned above occurred between 1950 and 1984 since then, there has been no significant increase. The 1989 estimated harvest (1.67 billion tons) was up only i percent from that of 1984, which means that grain output per person is down nearly 7 percent. Large amounts of previously stored food have. been used up. In some areas, people have consumed less food. Although five years is not long enough to indicate a long-term trend, this does show that the world's farmers are finding it more difficult to keep up with growth in population. Nowhere is this