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【简答题】
美林投资时钟理论按照经济增长与通胀的不同搭配,将经济周期划分为四个阶段:(1)“经济上行,通胀下行”构成复苏阶段,此阶段由于??,其相对债券和现金具备明显超额收益。(2)“经济上行,通胀上行”构成过热阶段,在此阶段,通胀上升增加了??,可能出台的加息政策降低了债券的吸引力,股票的配置价值相对较强,而商品则将明显走牛。(3)“经济下行,通胀上行”构成滞胀阶段,在滞胀阶段,现金??,持有现金最明智,经济下行对企业盈利的冲击将对股票构成负面影响,债券相对??。(4)“经济下行,通胀下行”构成衰退阶段,在衰退阶段,通胀压力下降,货币政策趋松,债券??,随着经济即将见底的预期逐步形成,股票的吸引力逐步增强。
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