Directions: There are two passages in this section. Each passage is followed by some questions or unfinished statements. For each of them there are four choices marked A), B), C) and D). You should decide on the best choice. Passage Two "War is not good for children and other living things," was often heard during the 1960s, yet man has been using violence and going to war against his fellow man for thousands of years and continues today, as evidenced by the ongoing conflicts (冲突) in many parts of the world. However, the character of war has changed. In ancient times, it was fought with stones and clubs and then advanced to spears and bows and arrows. We then "progressed" to guns and on to bombs, mines, and other weapons that enabled us not only to kill enemies but also to destroy civilians and the environment. Man has finally achieved, with the development of nuclear weapons, the ability to destroy entire populations and with even more advanced technology to attack very specific targets, as was shown during the Gulf War in 1990. What are the effects of war? Human casualties are the most immediate effect of armed conflict. Before the 20th century, the major casualties were soldiers who died both from war injuries and infection. If one examines the average number of deaths/million population from wars for every year in the past, it ranges from 19.0 in the 17th century to 10.8 in the 19th century. This increases greatly in the 20th century to 183.2 deaths/million with a large increase in deaths among the civilian population. In World War I, 19% of the deaths occurred among civilians. During the Spanish Civil War, World War II, and the Korean and Vietnam Wars, 50%, 48%, 34%, and 48% of the deaths respectively (分别), occurred among civilians. In the 1980s, 85% of war deaths were civilians. However, it can be argued that the long-term effects of war are probably more damaging than the immediate effects. This is particularly true for children. One year's spending on Star Wars research could provide an elementary school education for 1.4 million Latin American children and the cost of one Trident submarine could fund a 5-year program for universal immunization (免疫) against six major deadly diseases. These figures do not even consider some of the other effects of war such as the effect of refugees on struggling host countries, destroyed hospitals and schools, food shortage, increased infant and childhood death rates, and the breakup of families. 28. What does the author mean by "the long-term effects of war" (Line 1, Para. 3)?