The next outbreak? We're not ready Part 1 When I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. That's why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of ( 1 ) and water. When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel. Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesn't look like this. ( 2 ) , it looks like this. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most ( 3 ) to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes. Now, part of the reason for this is that we've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. But we've actually invested very ( 4 ) in a system to stop an epidemic. We're not ready for the next epidemic. Let's look at Ebola. I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. I followed it ( 5 ) through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. And as you look at what went on, the problem wasn't that there was a system that didn't work well enough; the ( 6 ) was that we didn't have a system at all. In fact, there's some pretty obvious key missing pieces. We didn't have a group of epidemiologists ( 7 ) to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. The case reports came in on paper. It was very delayed ( 8 ) they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. We didn't have a medical team ready to go. We didn't have a way of preparing people. Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a ( 9 ) job orchestrating volunteers. But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. And a large epidemic would require us to have ( 10 ) of thousands of workers. There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. No one to look at the diagnostics. No one to figure out what ( 11 ) should be used. As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to ( 12 ) them. But that was never tried. So there was a lot that was missing. And these things are really a global failure. The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about. Now, in the ( 13 ) it's quite different. There's a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go, they move in, they save the day, but that's just pure Hollywood. The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola. Let's look at the progression of Ebola over this ( 14 ) . About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were in the three West African countries. There're three reasons why it didn't spread more. The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers. They ( 15 ) the people and they prevented more infections. The second is the nature of the virus. Ebola does not spread through the air. And by the time you're contagious, most people are so ( 16 ) that they're bedridden. Third, it didn't get into many urban areas. And that was just luck. If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas, the case ( 17 ) would have been much larger. So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they're infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a ( 18 ) .The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism. So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse. In fact, let's look at a model of a virus spread through the ( 19 ) , like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So here's what would happen: It would spread throughout the world very, very ( 20 ) . And you can see over 30 million people die from that epidemic. So this is a serious problem. (To be continued) Vocabulary 词汇: outbreak 爆发(由短语动词 break out 变来) nuclear war 核战争 barrel (装啤酒或石油等的)桶 basement 地下室,地窖 can 罐子,罐头 nuclear attack 核攻击 hunker down 蹲下 global catastrophe 全球性灾难( catastrophe 大灾难) highly infectious virus 高传染性病毒( infectious 传染的,传染性的) missile 导弹 microbe 细菌,微生物 invest 投资,投入 deterrent 威慑物,威慑手段 epidemic 流行的,传染的;流行病,传染病 Ebola 埃博拉(病) tough challenges 严峻的挑战 case analysis tool 案例分析工具 to track polio eradication 追踪根除脊髓灰质炎( track 跟踪; polio 小儿麻痹症,脊髓灰质炎; eradication 消灭,扑灭,根除) there's some pretty obvious key missing pieces 有一些关键部分明显缺失了。( pretty obvious 很明显的; key 关键的; missing pieces 缺失的一些部分) epidemiologist 流行病学家 spread 传播,扩散 delayed 延迟的 extremely inaccurate 极端不准确 medical team 医疗队伍 orchestrate 精心安排,把 ... 协调地结合起来 require 要求 treatment approach 治疗方法 diagnostics 诊断 to figure out 解决,算出,想出 survivor 幸存者 process 处理,加工 plasma 血浆 fund 提供资金( The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics 世卫组织的资金用于检测流行病) Hollywood 好莱坞( but that's just pure Hollywood 但是好莱坞电影,不是现实的。) dramatically 戏剧性地,激烈地 devastating 毁灭性的 progression 前进,进展,发展状况 heroic 英雄的,英勇的 prevent 防止 infection 传染 contagious 感染性的,会蔓延的 bedridden 卧床不起的 urban areas 市区 bioterrorism 生物恐怖主义 literally 在字面上;真正地,确实地( = really ) Spanish Flu 西班牙流感