Higher education is one of the great successes of the welfare country．What was once the privilege of a few has become a middle-class entitlement， thanks mainly to government support．Some 3．5 million Americans and 5 million Europeans will graduate this summer．In the modem world universities are developing rapidly: China has added nearly 30 million places in 20 years．Yet the business has changed little since Aristotle taught at the Athenian Lyceum （雅典学园）: young students still gather at a specific time and place to listen to the wisdom of scholars．

At present， a revolution has begun， thanks to three forces: rising costs， changing demand and new technology．The result will be the complete change of the university．While the prices of cars， computers and much else have greatly fallen， tmiversities have been able to charge ever more for the same service because they are protected by public funding and the high value employers place on degrees．For two decades the cost of going to college in America has risen by 1．6 percentage points more than inflation every year．

For most students， the university remains a great deal．The total lifetime income from obtaining a college degree， in net-present-value （净现值） terms， can increase as much as $ 590，000．But an increasing number of students have gone deep into debt， especially the 47% in America and 28% in Britain who do not complete their course．As for them， the degree by no means values for that sum of money．And the government becomes more and more unwilling to fund the university．In America government funding per student fell by 27% between 2007 and 2012， while average tuition fees， adjusted for inflation， rose by 20%．In Britain， tuition fees close to zero two decades ago can reach $15，000 a year．

The second factor resulting in change is the labor market．In the standard model of higher education， people go to university in their 20s．A degree is an entry ticket to the professional classes．But automation is beginning to have the same effect on white-collar jobs as it has on blue- collar ones．According to a study from Oxford University，47% of occupations are at risk of being automated in the next few decades．As innovation wipes out some jobs and changes others， people will need to top up their human capital all through their lives．

By themselves， these two forces would be pushing change．A third——technology——ensures it．The internet， which has turned businesses from newspapers through music to book sale upside down， will turn over higher education．Now the MOOC， or 'Massive Open Online Course'， is offering students the chance to listen to star lecturers and get a degree for a fraction of the cost of attending a university．MOOCs started in 2008 ; however， they have so far failed to live up to their promise．Largely because there is no formal system of accreditation （认证）， drop-out rates have been high．But this is changing as private investors and existing universities are drawn in．One provider，Coursera， claims over 8 million registered users．Though its courses are free， it received its first $1 million in incomes last year after introducing the option to pay a fee of between $ 30 and $100 to have course results certified．Another， Udacity， has teamed up with AT&T and Georgia Tech to offer an online master's degree in computing， at less than a third of the cost of the traditional version．Harvard Business School will soon offer an online 'pre-MBA' for $1，500．Starbucks has offered to help pay for its staff to take online degrees with Arizona State University．

MOOCs will destroy different universities in different ways．Not all will suffer．Oxford and Harvard could benefit．People of great ambition will always want to go to the best universities to meet each other， and the digital economy tends to favor a few large institutions in charge of its operation．The big names will be able to sell their Moocs around the world．But ordinary universities may suffer the fate of many newspapers．Were the market for higher education to perform. in future as that for newspapers has done over the past decade or two， universities' incomes would fall by more than haft， employment in the industry would drop by nearly 30% and more than 700 institutions would shut their doors．The rest would need to adjust themselves to survive．

Like all revolutions， the one taking place in higher education will have victims．Many towns and cities rely on universities．In some ways MOOCs will further make the difference both among students and among teachers．The talented students will be much more comfortable than the weaker outside the structured university environment．Superstar lecturers will earn a fortune， to the anger of their less charming colleagues．

Politicians will come under pressure to halt this revolution．They should remember that state spending should benefit society as a whole， not protect professors from competition．The change of universities will benefit many more people than it hurts．Students in the rich world will have access to higher education at lower cost and greater convenience．The flexible nature of MOOCs appeals to older people who need training．EdX， another provider， says that the average age of its online students in America is 31．In the modern world online courses also offer a way for countries like Brazil to go ahead Western ones and supply higher education'much more cheaply．And education has now become a global market: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology discovered Battushig Myanganbayar， a remarkably talented Mongolian teenager， through an online electronics course．

Rather than maintaining the old model， governments should make the new one work better．They can do so by supporting common standards for accreditation．In Brazil， for instance， students completing courses take a governmentrun exam．In most Western countries it would likewise make sense to have a single， independent organization that certifies exams．Changing an ancient institution will not be easy．But it does promise better education for many more people．Rarely have need and opportunity so neatly come together． The introduction of automation affects the labor demand and then brings about the revolution of higher education． 查看材料